西藏旱灾变化趋势及其风险演变（英文）

编号 zgly0001683632

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 西藏旱灾变化趋势及其风险演变（英文）

作者 陈琼  刘峰贵  陈锐杰  赵志龙  张镱锂  崔鹏  郑度 

作者单位 CollegeofGeographicSciences  QinghaiNormalUniversity  KeyLaboratoryofLandSurfacePatternandSimulation  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS  CASCenterforExcellenceinTibetanPlateauEarthSciences  Universityof 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2019年11期

年份 2019 

分类号 P426.616 

关键词 Tibet  TR  TibetanPlateau  droughtdisaster  riskevolution 

文摘内容 The risk posed by natural disasters can be largely reflected by hazard and vulnerability. The analysis of long-term hazard series can reveal the mechanisms by which risk changes. Drought disasters are one of the main types of disaster in the Tibet Region(TR) of China. In this study, using statistical drought disasters data in the TR from 1912 to 2012 and socio-economic statistics for five periods between 1965 and 2015, and adopting standard statistical analyses, a wavelet analysis, and a risk assessment model, we first construct the index system for drought disaster risk assessment, and then assess the risk of drought disasters and analyze the mechanisms of changes in risk. The results showed that the occurrence of drought in the TR had three distinct cycles during this study periods, with durations of 5, 15, and 27 years respectively. The frequency of drought in the TR showed increasing trends, and the cycle of drought had been prolonged. From 1965 to 2015, the risk of drought disaster in the TR is significantly increased with the growth rate of 6.8% in high-risk area. In addition, the severity of drought had enhanced, especially in Qamdo. The increased vulnerability locally and significantly enhanced hazard of drought disaster, with a shrinkage of 16.3% in the low-value area and an expansion of 7.4% in the high-value area, being the determinants of drought disaster risk. Therefore, agricultural areas of the TR are the focal locations where risk of drought disaster needs to be managed.