编号
zgly0001585837
文献类型
期刊论文
文献题名
引发意大利托斯卡纳区滑坡的区域降水阈值体系的定义——统计与环境分析(英文)
作者
ROSIAscanio
SEGONISamuele
CATANIFilippo
CASAGLINicola
作者单位
DepartmentofEarthScience
UniversityofFlorence
Florence
Italy
母体文献
Journal of Geographical Sciences
年卷期
2012年04期
年份
2012
分类号
P426.6
关键词
landslide
threshold
rainfall
blackboxmodels
predictionintervals
文摘内容
The aim of this work is the determination of regional-scale rainfall thresholds for the triggering of landslides in the Tuscany Region(Italy).The critical rainfall events related to the occurrence of 593 past landslides were characterized in terms of duration(D) and intensity(I).I and D values were plotted in a log-log diagram and a lower boundary was clearly noticeable:it was interpreted as a threshold representing the rainfall conditions associated to landsliding.That was also confirmed by a comparison with many literature thresholds,but at the same time it was clear that a similar threshold would be affected by a too large approximation to be effectively used for a regional warning system.Therefore,further analyses were performed differentiating the events on the basis of seasonality,magnitude,location,land use and lithology.None of these criteria led to discriminate among all the events different groups to be characterized by a specific and more effective threshold.This outcome could be interpreted as the demonstration that at regional scale the best results are obtained by the simplest ap-proach,in our case an empirical black box model which accounts only for two rainfall pa-rameters(I and D).So a set of thresholds could be conveniently defined using a statistical approach:four thresholds corresponding to four severity levels were defined by means of the prediction interval technique and we developed a prototype warning system based on rainfall recordings or weather forecasts.